Fantasy Football: One Overvalued Player From Each Team

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

Positional ADP: RB18 | Projected Finish: RB15

I'm going slightly against our projections here. Don't get me wrong, Christian McCaffrey is a dynamite prospect. I just think this price is too much to pay in standard leagues.

From 2008 to 2016, 18 running backs were taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Only seven of them produced a top-24 fantasy season as a rookie. Not every rookie runner is Ezekiel Elliott. Some of them are Jonathan Stewart, who's never had an RB1 season, or Melvin Gordon, who was good (in fantasy) as a second-year back but terrible as a rookie.

McCaffrey isn't only fighting NFL history, he's fighting Carolina Panthers history. Cam Newton is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league, particularly when it comes to scoring. Newton's 48 rushing touchdowns since 2011 are the third-most in the entire NFL. Only Marshawn Lynch and Lesean McCoy have more. If Newton keeps running it in, or if Carolina gives goal line work to the bigger Stewart, that'll cap McCaffrey's upside.

McCaffrey might be able to make some of that up as a receiver, but there are two obstacles there. Since Newton entered the league in 2011, the Panthers are dead last in pass targets to the running back position. True, they've never had a back like McCaffrey, but this is awfully early in a fantasy draft to start betting on things that have never happened.

The second obstacle is the presence of fellow rookie Curtis Samuel, who's a candidate for a lot of the same kinds of targets as McCaffrey.

Instead Try

Spencer Ware. He's also got some new competition, but he has the benefit of experience as well as a coach that likes to throw to running backs. Ware is our RB16, but he projects to score within a point of McCaffrey, per our models, and with less risk, in my opinion.