The 9 Most Overvalued Players in Fantasy Football
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders
The path to upside for Marshawn Lynch is easy to see. The Raiders have a dynamic offense with a top offensive line, and the power running role that Latavius Murray left behind produced 17 carries from inside his opponent's 5-yard line in 14 games played last season. That was the sixth-highest total in football.
So, sure, I understand why people would want Marshawn Lynch this season. But at an RB12 average draft position, there's no risk baked into his cost. And that's why he's overvalued.
The last time we saw Lynch tote the rock in an NFL game was November 15th, 2015. You know the rest of the story: he went on to miss the remainder of the season for the Seahawks, retired, missed all of last year due to said retirement, and is now the starting running back for the Raiders.
When he last played, he wasn't the same back we had come to love.
| Year | Rushing NEP per Rush | League Average | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 45.71% |
| 2013 | 0.02 | -0.03 | 44.85% |
| 2014 | 0.10 | -0.03 | 48.57% |
| 2015 | -0.05 | -0.04 | 41.44% |
Granted, there are reasons for his decline in Rushing NEP per rush and Success Rate. The Seahawks' offensive line had issues, and Lynch could've been battling through his injury. It's still noteworthy, though.
Perhaps the biggest reason to fade his second-round draft position is because the Raiders may not even want him to touch the ball 200 times this season. Only four running backs over the last five years have finished in the top-12 -- as RB1s -- in standard scoring leagues while seeing 200 or fewer carries. And three of those four instances happened in 2015, when the running back position was a dumpster fire.
Again, Lynch does have upside. But as a 31-year-old who hasn't played since the middle of 2015 and who might see his touches capped, you can do better in Round 2 or 3.
