2017 NFL Power Rankings: Week 6
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
Dallas lost for the second straight week and looks to be a more extreme version of what they were last year.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.34 | 2-2 | 16.8% | 17 | 20 | -18 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Rams | -0.35 | 3-2 | 38.2% | 10 | 15 | +5 |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | -0.01 | 3-2 | 52.7% | 24 | 9 | +2 |
| 19 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0.37 | 1-4 | 5.0% | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.86 | 2-3 | 27.9% | 26 | 6 | +3 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 0.93 | 3-2 | 37.3% | 25 | 4 | -2 |
| 16 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.04 | 2-3 | 14.8% | 4 | 28 | -2 |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings | 1.61 | 3-2 | 38.5% | 11 | 19 | -7 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.98 | 3-2 | 69.1% | 21 | 12 | +4 |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 2.15 | 2-2 | 35.0% | 8 | 21 | +3 |
The gap between the Cowboys' offense and defense was wide in 2016, and it has gotten wider through five games in 2017. Last season, Dallas ranked 3rd in offense and 17th on defense (per our metrics), compared to being tied for 4th on offense and 28th on defense at the moment.
A lack of takeaways seem to be a big culprit -- the Cowboys defense had an average turnover per drive rate of 11.3% last season. Through the first five games this year, that rate has been nearly cut in half (5.7%). They have done a comparable job of preventing opponents from moving the ball, ranking 16th in yards allowed per play (5.2) compared to 13th last year (5.4; the league average has dropped to 5.3 from 5.5).
If the Cowboys’ turnover rate can regress towards the mean (as turnover rates tend to do), we could be seeing Dallas shoot up these rankings in the coming weeks since their offense has shown no signs of slowing down.
They are also not the only team in the middle of the pack with an extreme split between offense and defense: Cincinnati, Detroit, and Baltimore have all struggled to varying degrees on offense, yet have defenses that rank in the top 10. On the other end of the spectrum, Oakland and the Chargers boast top-10 offenses but have failed to match this performance on defense.
The Rams have one of the league's most efficient offenses while also being solid on defense. To date, they have indeed been one of the best teams in football (they rank eighth in Total NEP margin, including special teams), but our projections have yet to fully buy in; our model sees them as a .500 team going forward (which is still a nice improvement from their 6-10 preseason projection).
