3 Bold NFL Predictions for Week 11

Leonard Fournette Won't Be a Top-36 Running Back

Why This Is Bold: Going by points per game, Leonard Fournette is the fifth-best running back in PPR leagues. He has been a volume monster, amassing 19 or more touches in all but one game this season.

Why This Will Happen: The Cleveland Browns' defense has allowed a ton of points this year. Despite that, they have played tremendously well against the run, ranking fifth versus the ground game, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.

Fournette didn't look right last week in his first game back from his injury (and subsequent suspension). Maybe it was rust and the fact that he hadn't played in over a month; maybe his ankle is still more of a factor than the Jaguars have let on. He was absent from Friday's practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday's tilt.

Fournette is concerned about the cold, still banged up and has been inefficient this year. Per our numbers, only 35.37% of his carries have resulted in an expected-points gain, also known as his Rushing Success Rate, which you can read more about in our glossary. Fournette's Success Rate is eighth-worst among running backs with at least 100 carries. He's thriving because of insane volume, and that volume may not be there this week (plus the matchup is brutal), making Fournette an easy fade in DFS.