Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

MVP Odds: +700 (2nd)

Now we get to the two frontrunners -- Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

Some people will argue that the true sense of a player's value to a team is how his team performs when he is not in the lineup. Applying this logic, Rodgers' MVP case already looks like a strong one based on how the Green Bay Packers' offense crumbled without him last year. As it happens, Rodgers has only won the MVP award twice in his career, 2011 and 2014, and his 2014 triumph came after he played just nine games in 2013.

Despite missing a large chunk of the 2017 season, Rodgers has proved his worth time and time again for the Packers. He has a stellar 6.6% touchdown rate over the last two seasons, while his interception rate has exceeded 1.4% only twice in his last seven campaigns.

Rodgers was restricted to just 260 drop backs in 2017, his lowest number since becoming the starting quarterback in 2008. His 0.13 Passing NEP per drop back was the worst of his career in seasons he which he had at least 200 drop backs. Among his 2017 peers, it ranked 13th among 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs in the NFL.

Rodgers will be without his longtime favorite receiver, Jordy Nelson, who was released by the team this offseason. But the Packers have added a lot of new weapons on offense, including Jimmy Graham in free agency, to go with on-the-rise playmaker Davante Adams and a cartel of running back options.

Rodgers has shown an ability to get the best out of the players around him, and he also has four seasons with at least 38 passing touchdowns on his resume. Health is probably the only thing that can keep him from being in the MVP conversation on a yearly basis, and if he can help Green Bay win 10-plus games and return to the postseason, it'll look even more impressive after what happened to the Packers sans Rodgers a year ago.