Finding Betting Value in the Odds for the 2018 NFL MVP Award

Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots

MVP Odds: +600 (1st)

No serious conversation regarding the MVP can be carried on without Tom Brady featuring prominently. He is, after all, the reigning MVP after winning the award in 2017. It marked the third time in his career that he took home the award, also taking home MVP honors in 2007 and 2010.

In 2017, Brady paired superb efficiency with monster volume.

He lead the NFL in passing yards with 4,577, the third time he has paced the league in this category. And he also -- for the first time -- led all quarterbacks in pass attempts with 581.

On a per-play basis, he was simply a master. Among all signal-callers with at least 500 drop backs, he finished first in Passing NEP per drop back at 0.28. But it is worth pointing out that clip was a bit worse than the 0.35 Passing NEP per drop back Brady put up in 2016 -- although he tossed 149 fewer passes in 2016 (four-game suspension), and it's easier to maintain efficiency over a smaller sample.

Brady has been at the very top of the game for a long time, and he shows little sign of his powers dwindling. His touchdown rate has been at or above 5.7% in eight of his last nine seasons.

Considering the strength of the New England Patriots' roster and the weakness of the AFC East, Brady should find himself at the helm of a team with one of the best records in football. Winning and superb individual numbers will put any quarterback at the forefront of MVP talk.

The one red flag here is that Brady endured a 5.7% sack rate in 2017, the third time in five seasons that he has been taken down at this rate or higher. That's not ideal for any quarterback, especially one entering his age-41 campaign.

But like Rodgers, if Brady is healthy, he is all but guaranteed to be in the mix for the MVP, and by virtue of their division, the Patriots have a much easier path to a playoff berth than the Packers do, which is likely why oddsmakers gave Brady a slight edge.