NFL

NFL Betting: 4 Longshots Who Can Win Their Division

Neil Dutton  —  @ndutton13 May 29th, 2018
Despite capturing a division crown a year ago, the Chiefs have the worst division title chances in the AFC West, per oddsmakers. Where else can you find betting value with division odds?

Last year was a wild one in the NFL.

Five of the eight division winners -- Rams (+1400), Jaguars (+550), Saints (+350), Eagles (+340), Chiefs (+230) -- were teams that oddsmakers had picked to finish third or fourth in their division. Two of them (Jacksonville and Philly) advanced to the Conference Championship round.

Using numbers from oddsshark.com, let's take a stab at identifying four teams who could win their division this season despite long odds.

In this piece, we'll make reference to our in-house Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which tracks the efficiency of both teams and players, with the team side being adjusted for strength of opponent. A three-yard reception on 3rd-and-2 is wildly different than a three-yard reception on 3rd-and-4, and NEP helps account for that by tracking the expected points players add to their teams' total over the course of a season. You can learn more about NEP in our glossary.

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