NFL Betting: 4 Longshots Who Can Win Their Division

Kansas City Chiefs

Odds to Win Division: +320

There cannot be too many instances of a defending division champion entering the next year as the team least likely to win the division, per oddsmakers, but that is the situation with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2018.

Since coach Andy Reid arrived prior to the 2013 season, the Chiefs have posted a 53-27 record and have never finished worse than second in the AFC West. Indeed, the last two seasons have seen them finish at the top of the pile.

In 2017, they were one of the best offensive units in the NFL, finishing fifth in yards and sixth in points. On a per-play basis, they were just as impressive, coming in fourth in schedule-adjusted Offensive NEP per play thanks to the stellar foursome of Alex Smith, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill.

So why are the bookmakers so down on the Chiefs?

For starters, their Achilles heel in 2017 was their defense, and that continues to look like an issue. The Chiefs had the 10th-worst D, according to our numbers. They did spent five of their six draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, but they also traded away stud cornerback Marcus Peters and released longtime defensive stalwart Derrick Johnson.

It wasn't just on defense that the team shed some players. Smith was traded to Washington in a swap that netted the Chiefs a cornerback in Kendall Fuller (plus a third-round pick), which leaves second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the new sheriff in town. As impressive as Mahomes looked in the preseason and his one NFL start last season, it remains to be seen how efficient he can be on a long-term basis.

The bookies certainly don't think a three-peat is on the cards for the Chiefs, so if you buy in to Mahomes, this price offers tantalizing value.