Which NFL Head Coach Will Be the First to Get Fired?
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
First Coach Fired Odds: 32/1
This one may rightly be seen as a long shot to happen, but time may be running out on the John Harbaugh era with the Baltimore Ravens. Since they won the Super Bowl following the 2012 season, the Ravens have gone 40-40, missing the playoffs in four of five seasons. Team owner Steve Bisciotti admitted that he considered a change at the end of the 2017 season, but he ultimately kept Harbaugh.
In the last three seasons, the Ravens have finished 30th, 27th and 22nd in Adjusted Offensive NEP per play. The offense is clearly what's holding them back as they finished 15th, 8th and 3rd in defense the past three years, according to our numbers.
It's clear the team needs to make some changes on offense, and to their credit, they've gone about doing just that, overhauling their receiver corps with Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. Then in the NFL Draft, Baltimore traded up to nab Lamar Jackson with the last pick of the first round.
The selection of Jackson may be the first domino to fall in the process of Baltimore moving on from longtime quarterback Joe Flacco. Among passers with at least 400 drop backs last season, only DeShone Kizer was worse on a per-play basis than Flacco was, per NEP. If Flacco doesn't play better this fall, the Ravens will likely be tempted to insert Jackson, and Harbaugh could be inclined to do it in an effort to save his job.
It should be noted however that the Ravens have only had three head coaches since their inception. Ted Marchibroda was fired after just three seasons, while Brian Billick (nine seasons) and Harbaugh (10) have been given much more time to deliver. Plus, should the Ravens move on from Harbaugh, he'd likely land on his feet very quickly, something they surely know.
Yes, this is a long shot, and Baltimore wasn't that bad last year, ranking 11th by our nERD metric. But 10 seasons is an eternity in terms of NFL coaching tenures, and if the Ravens get off to a horrible start, it's not unreasonable to think the team could move on from Harbaugh. At these odds, it's an enticing bet.
