Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 4

Aaron Jones Will Score 2 Touchdowns

This may be the boldest take here, but we're saving the best for last. Aaron Jones isn't even the starting running back on the Green Bay Packers, so it seems crazy to think he could score 2 touchdowns just 2 weeks removed from his 2-game suspension.

This bold prediction relies on one thing: rational coaching. Aaron Jones is the best running back on the Packers, and they will win more games with him on the field.

Jones has only played one game this season, but his 83.3% Rushing Success Rate is insane. Jamaal Williams has a good 44.44% Success Rate and Ty Montgomery has a better 83.3% rate, but Jones gets the job done far more consistently than the competition.

Without dividing it up per carry, Rushing NEP simply tallies how many expected points a player has contributed on all of their rushes combined this season. Williams has been the primary ball carrier to start the season in Green Bay, and has posted -3.11 Rushing NEP. Jones -- again, we have a small sample here -- posted 2.36 NEP in just one game.

That explains why Jones should get the lion's share of touches going forward, but why would that mean he could score 2 touchdowns?

The Packers are at home facing the Buffalo Bills this Sunday, who have allowed an average of 2 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. The Packers are 10-point favorites in this game and as we mentioned with Sony Michel, running backs on home favorites perform better.

Jones' team should be playing with a lead for most of the game so there will be positive game script for a running back. He's the best back on the team, and they'll want to take it easy on Aaron Rodgers while he recovers from his knee injury. That's why Aaron Jones will score 2 touchdowns this weekend.