Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 4

Deshaun Watson Will Not Be A Top 20 Quarterback

In the first three weeks of the season, Deshaun Watson has finished as the QB22, QB10 and QB8. From a narrative perspective, it seemed like Watson was shaking off rust in Week 1 after missing the back half of the 2017 season with a torn ACL. If you buy into that, it looks like Watson is a top-tier quarterback for fantasy football.

This week, Watson will finish outside the top 20 quarterbacks again though. He's squaring off against a Colts defense that has been underrated to start the year.

The Colts rank an impressive 8th in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play metric, which measures how much passing the ball has added to an opponent's expected point total. Their 10 sacks are tied for the third-most in the NFL, and is coincidentally the same number of sacks the Texans have given up.

That sacks allowed number is the 8th-highest rate in the league, but they have also allowed the most quarterback hits in the league with 33. That's 6 more than any other team has allowed. Add to these sack concerns Watson's tendency to turn the ball over through fumbles and interceptions, and you have a recipe for a rough fantasy outing for the young quarterback. The Colts have forced the 4th-most fumbles, while Watson has fumbled 3 times and thrown an interception in every game.

This isn't the same pushover Colts defense from years past. They're quietly holding their own and could give Watson a very hard time on Sunday.