Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 5
Josh Rosen Will Be a QB1 This Week
Josh Rosen has had a pretty rough start to his career. He was passed over by quarterback-needy teams in the draft and was thrust into the game in Week 3 to cover for a flailing Sam Bradford. The Arizona Cardinals have had a bottom-five offense this year, according to our metrics, so his situation is still pretty gloomy. But Rosen is doing what he can to turn it around.
He actually played surprisingly well in his first ever NFL start. Despite limited help from his supporting cast -- I counted five drops as a casual viewer -- he still managed to put together a decent game. He posted the ninth-lowest Passing Success Rate (42.86%), or the rate of his passes that added expected points to his team's total, but with the low volume (only 27 passes) and having to deal with drops, that success rate could have looked a lot better.
On the brighter side, his 0.26 Passing NEP per drop back ranked 13th among all starting quarterbacks in Week 4, and his season rate of 0.24 ranks 8th. In other words, the passes he has completed have been high-value passes. He managed a significantly higher yards per completion (12) than his opponent Russell Wilson (9.05), so it was a promising debut.
In Week 5, he faces the San Francisco 49ers, who have been giving up a steady 23.3 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks -- the eighth-highest rate in the league. The young quarterback should thrive against what figures to be a soft defense and will post a top-12 fantasy quarterback finish.
