Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 9
Courtland Sutton Will Do More Than Replace Demaryius Thomas
In one of the biggest trades of the season, the Denver Broncos have sent Demaryius Thomas to the Houston Texans. It's a pretty huge shakeup for the organization -- Thomas has been one of their top receivers dating all the way back to 2012. But the move does clear the way for their next top receiver: Courtland Sutton.
The Broncos selected Sutton in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, making him the third wide receiver selected overall, behind my aforementioned hero D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley. Sutton forced his way into playing beside -- not behind -- Thomas and teammate Emmanuel Sanders with a strong preseason, and has spent just about as much time on the field as either veteran option through the first half of the season.
Thomas' departure sets Sutton up for a monster opportunity. Thomas was rocking a 19% target share and a 25% share of the team's air yards before the trade, the second- and first-highest rates on the team respectively. Even with Thomas present, Sutton was carving out a solid 13% target share. But more impressively, he was demanding 22% of the team's air yards despite his lower target share.
His large share of the team's air yards can be explained by his impressive average depth of target of 14 yards. He hasn't been catching his targets consistently -- his catch rate is a lowly 44.7% -- but when he has caught the ball he's making it count. The catch rate isn't even entirely his fault. Per PlayerProfiler.com, a full third of his targets have been deemed uncatchable. His catch rate improves drastically to 69.6% when we factor out those uncatchable targets. Keenum's play has improved after a terrible first four games -- he's thrown seven touchdowns in his most recent four games, compared to just three through the first four weeks -- so that should help Sutton improve his efficiency.
Demaryius Thomas left some big shoes to fill, but his replacement will do more than fill them this week. Courtland Sutton will score more fantasy points in Week 9 than Thomas did in any game this season.
