Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 9
The Amari Cooper Trade Will Pay Instant Dividends
Whether or not you think the Dallas Cowboys paid a fair price for Amari Cooper is one thing, but it doesn't change the fact that he's now officially on the team. After sitting through the Oakland Raiders Week 7 bye and then again through the Cowboys' bye the following week, Cooper is finally set to debut for his new team on Monday Night Football.
There's legitimate reason to have questions about how Cooper will produce with his new squad. Multiple studies have been done demonstrating that receivers that change teams in between seasons typically underperform their past fantasy production in year one, so it's reasonable to assume that receivers changing teams mid-season will similarly struggle. Cooper was producing at a disappointingly replaceable level through the first half of the season, which casts even further doubt on the likelihood of him succeeding with on a new team.
But I think there's reason to hope, and that stems from the change in quarterbacks. Per NFL's Next Gen Stats, Carr is throwing for just 5.9 intended air yards per pass attempt -- the lowest mark in the league. Their air yards to the sticks metric provides further context. Carr is throwing the ball, on average, 2.7 behind the first down marker. That is again the lowest mark in the league, behind even Eli Manning. People have pointed out how much more efficient Cooper has played from the slot over his career, but based on Carr's metrics above I think this is actually reflective of the quarterback. Carr predominantly throws short passes near the line of scrimmage and barely throws passes deep and outside -- where Cooper has spent most of his time running routes.
Dak Prescott is, by comparison, throwing the ball at a roughly league-average 0.5 air yards behind the sticks and with a slightly above average 8.6 intended air yards. Prescott (15.53%) has thrown in it deep at a higher rate than Carr (12.26%) this season despite throwing to a group of typical slot receivers. We've seen Prescott prop up a stereotypical WR1 before, back in 2016 when Dez Bryant posted the highest yards per reception of his career. There's opportunity for Cooper on his new team, and his new quarterback will be more willing to throw him high-value targets than Derek Carr ever was.
Which brings us to Monday night. The Titans have been getting walked all over by opposing wide receivers this year, allowing huge games to Tyrell Williams, Michael Crabtree and Alshon Jeffery in their last three games (excluding the game they played the Bills). Cooper has already been inserted into the starting lineup, so he'll have every chance to shine against the weak Titans secondary and with a quarterback that's more willing to throw the ball down the field. Amari Cooper is going to have 100 receiving yards in his first game for the Dallas Cowboys.
