5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10

Chicago Bears' Passing Offense

It has been a while since we've gotten to see Mitchell Trubisky do his thang in full force. The past two weeks, the Chicago Bears have won by a combined 46 points, keeping Trubisky to 49 total pass attempts and 7 rush attempts in the contests.

They get a divisional foe this week, but it's one with a far more competent offense than that of the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. It's possible we see Trubisky get unleashed once again.

The first thing that catches your attention in this spot for Trubisky is the matchup. The opposing Detroit Lions rank 30th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They've allowed all of Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, and Brock Osweiler to have efficient passing games against them, and Trubisky -- even with all his shortcomings -- likely compares favorably to that trio.

The reason we haven't really noticed this yet is volume. The Lions haven't played many close games, so only two quarterbacks have attempted more than 27 passes against them. One of them was Aaron Rodgers, who lit it up with 442 yards and 3 touchdowns.

We shouldn't expect a Rodgers-esque performance out of Trubisky on Sunday for several reasons, but the key takeaway here is this: you can pass efficiently on this Lions team. That makes volume less important and amps up the appeal in Trubisky from a fantasy perspective.

In case things get out of hand, we actually do have a sample on Trubisky in a blowout win against a poor passing defense. That came in Week 4 as Trubisky threw for 354 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 26 attempts against the Buccaneers. They won that game 48-10. Even if the Bears do get out front early, there's no guarantee that Trubisky winds up flopping.

The Tampa Bay game is interesting for another reason. That game took place at home. Both this year and last, that has been a boon for Trubisky.

Trubisky has played four games at home and four on the road this season, and he played six in each situation last year. The table below compares his performances at home versus on the road in those two years, with Passing NEP simply being the total expected points added in that scenario.

At home, Trubisky's efficiency splits are in line with Matt Ryan's. On the road, he plays like Prescott. Luckily for him, this one's in Chicago.

It's true that the bulk of Trubisky's production at home this year came in that blowout against the Buccaneers. Even with that being the case, he still scored 33.4 FanDuel points against the Patriots and 21.9 against the Jets. It's too soon to say for sure that we want to target Trubisky at home, but it certainly doesn't seem to be hurting him any.

The one potential negative of facing the Lions is that they don't allow much rushing volume to opposing quarterbacks. No quarterback has rushed for more than 15 yards against them this year. With that said, a lot of the quarterbacks they've faced -- including Russell Wilson and Prescott -- have trimmed down their rushing output this year relative to years past. It's definitely something to keep in mind with Trubisky, but it's not necessarily a trait that will stick.

Because Trubisky can do so much work with his legs, it's fully viable to use him by himself in a tournament and hope he scores a couple of times on the ground. But in case you do want to stack him, you'll have a full complement of choices this weekend.

Allen Robinson has missed the past two games with a groin issue, but he's ready to rock now. They've also got Anthony Miller at full health after he missed a game earlier in the year. So who should we target in Trubisky stacks?

The best methodology here is likely looking just at the games in which both Robinson and Miller have played to see if anybody separates from the pack. That's a sample of five games, and here's how things have played out.

Playing Trubisky by himself is starting to look a whole lot sweeter.

Robinson led the team in targets in this time, but he was never an overwhelming target hog, and his usage wasn't superbly high-leverage. That's a bit of a turnoff, especially when he's coming off a groin injury and likely in for a date with Darius Slay. (Update: Slay missed practice Friday and has been ruled out for Week 10.)

With Anthony Miller, his outlook may be better than the numbers indicate. In the two games after Miller came back from his injury, he netted seven deep targets, more than twice as many as any other Bears pass-catcher in that time. He also out-targeted Taylor Gabriel in both the games Robinson missed (and the game before that, as well). If you're looking for a wide receiver on this team, the best bet may actually be Miller.

As for Trey Burton, the usage has been sporadic all year long. He had 11 targets in Week 7 with Robinson playing, but he has exceeded five targets in only one other game this year. Additionally, the Lions haven't been terrible against tight ends this year, allowing more than five targets to only one player. Burton's in play because he's a home favorite on a passable offense, but he doesn't seem to be somebody we need to prioritize due to the matchup.

Finally, it's worth discussing Tarik Cohen. With the Bears' blowouts the past two weeks, Cohen has gone back in the cupboard, getting 11 carries and 5 targets combined. Could he be unleashed again here?

It has seemed as if the Bears have been using Cohen when the matchup has dictated that they do so, pumping volume his way against teams with deficiencies at linebacker. That's definitely not a position of strength for the Lions, though they haven't faced many pass-catching backs to expose this issue. Cohen could do that this weekend. It's a slate that's loaded at running back, but Cohen gets both enough raw and high-leverage targets to justify a look at $6,400.