5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 11

Indianapolis Colts' Passing Offense

The Colts aren't quite as cheap as the Titans across the board, but there's a ton to like in this spot. It's also possible they're a bit better than they appear at first glance.

If you dig back in the Colts' game logs, you'll see that they've won three straight games dating back to Marlon Mack's second game back from injury. It has brought their record to 4-5 and is great for their playoff outlook; it just hasn't been great for the volume in their passing game.

In this three-game stretch, Andrew Luck has just 23, 31, and 29 pass attempts, respectively. He has still paid off for fantasy because he has been swimming in touchdowns, but it's hard for guys like T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle to get volume on that number of attempts.

Volume matters for receivers and tight ends in fantasy, so if we think the Colts are going to keep pounding the rock, it's hard to turn to those guys here. But that capped volume may not be a permanent fixture.

It's always important to remember the context of which these games take place. In the first game in this stretch, the Colts clobbered the Buffalo Bills, 37-5. They led, 24-0, at the half, allowing Luck to throw just eight times in the second half before giving way to Jacoby Brissett.

The next week, the Colts faced the Oakland Raiders, and that game was much closer as the Colts needed 21 points in the 4th quarter to pull out a 14-point win. But there, Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins ran the ball 38 times for 224 yards, averaging 5.89 yards per carry. They didn't need to throw the ball there because the ground game was so effective.

Then you get to Week 10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Once again, Luck beasted out in the first half, throwing 20 times for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns to put the Colts up, 29-16, at the half. The Jaguars eventually made it a three-point game, but Luck threw just nine times in the second half as they tried to milk the clock.

In other words, there are pretty simple explanations for the low volume in each of those three games. Either the ground game was effective or the opposing offense couldn't keep pace. You can understand why Luck's volume would be muted.

Given the way that Mariota has played -- along with the struggles of the Colts' defense -- we might not see a similar script here. Additionally, the Titans rank 11th in Rushing NEP per carry allowed to opposing backs while sitting 20th against the pass. There should be incentive to chuck it a bit more.

If Luck does that, there's a good chance he'll do so efficiently. He's playing at home, indoors, as a slight favorite, all things that bode well for quarterback fantasy production. He's a mighty fine play at $7,800.

As for his pass-catchers, Hilton isn't as cheap as Corey Davis. But that doesn't mean he's not a bargain.

Hilton finished Week 10 with seven targets, the most he has had since injuring his hamstring back in Week 4. Two of those targets were at least 16 yards downfield, giving him multiple deep targets in four of seven games this year. It seems safe to say that he's back to being healthy.

If that's the case, there's no way he should be priced at $6,800. Prior to his injury, Hilton had double-digit targets in all three games, accounting for 26.0% of the team's total looks and 30.8% of their deep targets. With Luck going deep more often now than he was then, there's extra value in that.

The other big allure of Hilton is the role he has had close to the goal line this year. Despite missing two games, Hilton already has nine targets inside the 10-yard line this year. He had eight the previous two seasons combined. It has turned into just four touchdowns, but there's plenty of room for that number to grow.

With this game being played in Indy, he adds yardage upside to the fold, as well. Of his 29 career 100-yard games, 21 have been played in either domes or stadiums with retractable roofs. This is a monster blow-up spot for Hilton.

If you need cheaper access to this offense, you can get it via Doyle even after last week's disappointment.

Doyle finished that game with just three targets, tying the fewest he has had in a game since November of 2016. He lost touchdowns to fellow tight ends Eric Ebron and Mo Alie-Cox, so it's understandable if you're a bit turned off.

Still, the broader picture for Doyle is positive. In his four games this year, Doyle has 22.3% of the team's targets and 19.2% of the red-zone targets. He actually has more red-zone targets in those games than Ebron does, netting at least one in every game.

There's a chance Doyle could bust again, but that's true of any tight end on this slate not named Zach Ertz. Doyle's just $5,400, tied to an efficient quarterback, playing indoors, and part of a potential high-scoring game. With his market shares still very much palatable for the position, it's fully justifiable to go back to Doyle in this matchup.