5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 11
Tennessee Titans' Passing Offense
Fun time's over. Now that we've gone through a couple of high-priced backs to prioritize, it's time to find our value plays. Thankfully, this Sunday's game between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts can provide some on both sides.
Starting with the visitors, it's pretty clear that the Titans' offense has been trending up recently. They blew out the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys in consecutive weeks, and this all comes as Marcus Mariota gets further removed from his elbow injury.
With that said, the sample on the Titans improving actually stretches a bit further than perception. They looked more competent before their bye week, as well, nearly beating the Chargers over in London. Mariota seemed healthy in that one, and it may have been the true turning point in their season.
The table below looks at Mariota's efficiency metrics both prior to that game and since then. "Passing NEP/P" is short for Passing NEP per drop back, and in this instance, Success Rate represents the percentage of drop backs that increase the team's expected points for the drive.
| Mariota in 2018 | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate | Yards Per Attempt | FanDuel PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 5 Games | -0.12 | 42.2% | 6.72 | 11.20 |
| Past 3 Games | 0.35 | 53.8% | 8.29 | 20.30 |
For context, -0.12 Passing NEP per drop back would rank 33rd of 35 qualified quarterbacks if it were his full-season number; 0.35 would rank 5th. This guy is a completely different quarterback than he was while dealing with the elbow injury.
The timing of the uptick for Mariota could not be better. Not only do the Titans get to play indoors this week, but they're facing a pass defense that has really struggled. The Colts enter Week 11 ranked 27th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics.
That's a disappointing ranking after the Colts started the year off so well, holding guys like Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz in check. Since then, Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, and Blake Bortles have all had efficient passing days against them, showing how impactful those mid-season injuries for the Colts' defense have been. Mariota has been playing much better recently than Darnold, Carr, and Bortles, meaning he should be able to take advantage of this defense.
Mariota is $7,100 on FanDuel for this week, meaning he's one of those assets who can help you afford the high-priced running backs. The same is true for Corey Davis.
After popping off for 7 receptions for 125 yards and a touchdown last week, it's a lock that Davis will carry a bunch of ownership. That's less concerning when someone is underpriced, and it's abundantly clear that this is the case for Davis.
For just $6,200, you're getting access to 30.7% of the Titans' overall targets, 51.2% of their deep targets (at least 16 yards downfield), and 36.1% of their red-zone targets. Normally, you see those market share numbers only in guys like Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins, but Davis has been an absolute target hog. We just haven't gotten to see it because Mariota's health still wasn't fully there.
What makes Davis' usage even more impressive is the cornerbacks he has faced along the way. He has had to go up against Xavien Howard, Tre'Davious White, Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Casey Hayward, and Stephon Gilmore, and yet he has still managed to get absolutely fed targets. He's not going to face that stiff coverage this week, meaning we can feel pretty good about Davis even at elevated ownership.
The other potential outlet here is Dion Lewis. Yes, he does give you one less slot to use on a high-priced running back, but Lewis brings plenty to the table to compensate for that pain.
Lewis enters this game with 15.7% of the Titans' targets for the year. That meshes well with the Colts' defense as they have allowed more running-back receptions per game than every team but the Atlanta Falcons.
On top of that, Lewis' salary of $5,900 just doesn't come close to reflecting his current role in the offense. Lewis has averaged 17.3 carries and 4.0 targets per game over the past 3 contests, and he has played at least 75% of the snaps in 2 straight. There's always a chance that Derrick Henry will pilfer a goal-line carry, but Lewis scored 18.5 FanDuel points without a touchdown in the London game.
With guys like Beckham, Julio Jones, and Michael Thomas in fun spots on this slate, it's okay to pay down at running back in some lineups. Lewis seems to be the best outlet for doing so. We'll want to stack Mariota with Davis more often, but if we want to jam in a high-priced wide receiver, too, then Lewis will absolutely suffice.
