NFL

5 DraftKings Bargains for Week 13

Gabe Garrido  —  @@guhreedoe Nov 29th, 2018
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Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DraftKings Price: $3,900

Projected Points: 10.42

Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.67

The Carolina Panthers have struggled covering wide receivers this season, and it shows in their 28th-ranked pass defense. Last week, perimeter receivers Tyler Lockett and David Moore both went off for 100 yards and a touchdown against them. Now, the Panthers might be getting the best trio of outside wide receivers in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Chris Godwin has been up and down all season, but he has seen consistent volume all year given that he’s split time with DeSean Jackson as the third receiver. Over the Bucs’ last three games, Godwin has seen as many targets as teammate Adam Humphries despite the lower snap rate (66% to 49.7%). He’s also had more receiving yards (195) than Jackson (124) and Humphries (167). Godwin is the cheapest Buc receiver despite doing more with fewer opportunities.

We’ve seen his ceiling this year, with 100-yard upside and the ability to get in the end zone. There is little doubt that Godwin is a talented receiver stuck in a bad situation -- to note his 51.1 Reception Net Expected Points is 26th among all wide receivers.

Currently DeSean Jackson is getting a second medical opinion on his thumb. He’s currently practicing with a brace on his hand, which is problematic for a player of his role. With a limited designation early in the week, and the fact that Jackson is getting a second opinion suggests that he could be trending toward not playing this week.

Jackson has captured a 20% target market share over the last three weeks, averaging 7.7 targets per game in doing so. To compare, Godwin has 12% of the team targets at 4.7 targets per game. Expectations shouldn’t be that Godwin absorbs Jackson’s workload, but the upside to flirt with double-digit targets will be there with Jackson unavailable.

Godwin is set up to have a nice game this week, even though he’s likely to split time with Jackson. If Jackson misses, it’s going to be all systems go for Godwin.

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