Week 16 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
Over/Under: 47.0
Colts Implied Team Total: 28.50
Giants Implied Team Total: 18.50
As you can see, it's not an ideal week for shootouts on the main slate. The idea here is to target a team with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate, using a few Week 15 down performances as leverage in tournaments. If the New York Giants are able to get Odell Beckham back healthy, then this game could actually be closer than the spread suggests. Regardless, this is the closest spread among the next-highest totaled games, so at the very least you'll want heavy attachment to the Indianapolis Colts side.
Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $7,000
Despite a difficult on-paper matchup, Mack exploded last week to snap out of his mid-season lull. Was it an unreliable fluke or an attackable DFS trend? After all, Mack runs behind the sixth-best run blocking offensive line, per Football Outsiders. It turns out, when center Ryan Kelly is healthy, Colts backs average a robust 1.5 more yards per carry than when he's out, per Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus. Sure enough, Kelly returned from a three-game absence last Sunday and Mack exploded for 139 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Quietly the per-game RB11 on the season, Mack checks in as just the 13th-most expensive running back on the main slate. He's handled over 70% of the team's running back touches since Week 14 and 100% of the carries inside the ten over that same span. Since trading elite run-stuffer Damon Harrison ahead of Week 8, the Giants have allowed 4.85 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns to running backs. Attached to a large team total as a ten-point home favorite, this is another smash spot for Mack. He makes a lot of sense as a stack with Indianapolis D/ST ($4,500).
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
FanDuel Price: $9,000
Saquon Barkley matches a pattern we've stuck to all year in this column, and it's a solid DFS strategy in general: target proven commodities coming off down weeks, especially at higher owneship. Saquon checks all the boxes, and because his price has dropped slightly, he's even more appealing, regardless of Odell's presence or not. While we've targeted pass-catching running backs against Atlanta this season, the Colts have actually allowed just one fewer catch than the Falcons have. Saquon is second among running backs in receptions per game (5.9). Indianapolis plays at one of the fastest paces in the league, elevating potential volume even further. Game-script proof given his secure passing role, Barkley is a fun tournament bounce-back option with legitimate 10-catch upside.
Others to Consider
Generally, we want attachment to quarterbacks on the side of the strong team total. While the game script can get away from them, it's usually because they're involved with most of the team's scoring. Coming off a down game where Marlon Mack scored two touchdowns, Andrew Luck ($8,200) has a strong cash floor and legitimate tournament appeal. The Giants oddly don't stand out as a great fantasy matchup for quarterbacks, yet New York's pass defense ranks 13th-worst per numberFire's Net Expected Points model. Luck may go underowned coming off last week's dud.
The best part about the Colts is the skinny usage tree. T.Y. Hilton ($7,700) averages nearly four more points per game at home for his career, and his deep speed has proven cornerback-independent all season long. Running 15% of his routes in the slot, he should avoid Janoris Jenkins on at least that many routes. Hilton is likely to go underowned in tournaments as well and is always in play as a stack with Luck.
Given his one-catch dud last week, Eric Ebron ($6,100) makes a ton of sense as a leverage play. He's a weekly top-four tight end option whenever Jack Doyle is out. The only issue is, he doesn't run block. With the Colts controlling the game (and the script) last week, run blocking tight end Mo Alie-Cox played a season-high 40 snaps. That leaves Ebron up to tournament consideration only. Considering they are ten-point favorites, this doesn't project as ideal game script for pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines ($4,800).
Outside of Barkley, the entire Giants' side is up to the health of Odell Beckham ($8,000). If he doesn't play, Eli Manning ($6,400) simply isn't an option. Despite two down performances, Sterling Shepard ($5,000) did sneakily see nine targets last week. At his price, he remains a cash punt in a game Eli should have to throw a lot.
Against a Colts defense that has faced the second-most tight end targets on the season, Evan Engram is an intriguing cash option of Odell sits. If not, he becomes a somewhat contrarian tournament play. The Colts deploy a zone-heavy scheme that doesn't often get beat deep and therefore allows a lot of underneath completions, perfect for the likes of Barkley, Shepard and Engram.
Should Beckham manage to suit up, he becomes a low-floor tournament option with potential for re-injury. Shepard would become a much more enticing GPP option at that point, as the Colts have oddly stifled number-one receiving options this year.
Eli Weiner is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Eli Weiner also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Eweiner2. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
