Week 16 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under: 47.0
Panthers Implied Team Total: 24.75
Falcons Implied Team Total: 22.25
Before the season, a Week 16 divisional game between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons had marquee matchup written all over it. Now, it's nothing more than a game between two times with little to no playoff life. Still, that doesn't mean it's a game to avoid for DFS purposes. Atlanta's defense ranks dead-last in numberFire's Net Expected Points model, while Carolina ranks tied for seventh-worst. That should yield a plethora of fantasy points for those involved.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
FanDuel Price: $9,300
Christian McCaffrey's price is steep, but does it matter at this point? Once again, Atlanta allows the most receptions per game to running backs (6.73 per game). On a related note, CMC leads all running backs with 6.71 catches per game. Conveniently, Atlanta's run defense also checks in at second-worst in the league per numberFire's Net Expected Points model. Per Graham Barfield of NFL.com, McCaffrey is the only running back to be an RB2 or better every single week this season. He's been at least a top-20 option every time out since Week 2. With a bankable floor in a pristine home matchup, McCaffrey is a cash lock and enticing tournament option no matter his price.
Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Price: $6,400
Tevin Coleman is a pretty simple dollar-per-touch value play. With Ito Smith done for the year, the Falcons are down to just Coleman, practice squad call-up Brian Hill ($4,500), and the ghost of Jeremy Langford ($4,500). Coming off 145 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries, it's clear Coleman earned more work. The tricky part here is even though Carolina's middle-of-the-pack run defense isn't a huge threat, Coleman's impending free agency might be. The backfield had been a pretty even split to this point, and head coach Dan Quinn "plans to get a closer look" at Hill given his youth and team control. A 219-pound bruiser, Hill shouldn't stand as a threat to Coleman's receiving usage. All of this adds up to Coleman being a tough cash sell but worthy GPP option given his low price in a good offense.
Others to Consider
Can we trust Cam Newton's ($8,500) shoulder at this point? A week after the Panthers had Taylor Heinicke come in to throw a hail mary, Cam proceeded to throw a ton of weak-armed ducks last week. The problem is the matchup couldn't really be better. Atlanta has allowed the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and its pass defense ranks third-worst, per numberFire's Net Expected Points model. Ultimately as a home favorite, Cam definitely maintains tournament appeal. But I'm a bit too sketched out by his arm to trust him in cash.
The ambiguous state of Cam's arm makes it harder to analyze his receiving options, albeit in a great matchup. In fact, giving up the most FanDuel points per game to receivers, there's no better matchup in football. Given his price and most secure role, D.J. Moore ($6,300) is the only cash-viable option.
Under normal circumstances, we'd be all over Curtis Samuel ($5,700) in this plum spot. A las, Cam's arm renders him a low-floor GPP option in a good matchup. Ditto for rookie tight end Ian Thomas ($5,400). Given the state of Newton's shoulder, it's entirely feasible Carolina tries to ride McCaffrey to victory against a porous run defense.
At $8,500, Matt Ryan is a tough sell outside of tournament stacks with Julio Jones ($8,700). Ryan is averaging nearly five fewer points per game on the road this season. While Carolina's pass defense is below average, at home the Panthers did just hold Drew Brees and the Saints to 12 points.
With 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in eight of his last nine games, Julio is a comfortable cash option with enticing tournament upside. James Bradberry is a fine young player, but he's no match for Jones. It's possibly noise, but Julio averages six full more PPR points per game this year when playing on the road.
Unless you're trying to get frisky and play Brian Hill, the sneakiest play on the Falcons side is Austin Hooper ($5,300). Hooper had a touchdown knocked out of his hands last week, but his box score is a goose egg, helping ensure lower ownership this week. The 2.5-point spread implies a back-and-forth game, so there should be pass volume to go around. Carolina allows the sixth-most tight end points per game.
Per usual, Calvin Ridley ($5,500) and Mohamed Sanu ($5,300) are low-floor tournament dart throws in a solid offense, this week with potentially elevated pass volume. Sanu is the preferred play given his slightly cheaper price and matchup against the diminutive Captain Munnerlyn in the slot.
