Week 16 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under: 53.5
Saints Implied Team Total: 29.50
Steelers Implied Team Total: 24.00
With easily the highest total on the slate, this game has both massive playoff implications and fantasy implications for Week 16. Curiously, both the New Orleans Saints' and Pittsburgh Steelers' offenses have slowed down in recent weeks, while both defenses are playing at their bests so far this season. In fact, since Week 10, the Saints defense ranks top three in points allowed, yards allowed, sacks and turnovers, per Field Yates of ESPN. That should make us think twice about attacking this game in cash, but make no mistake, you will still want exposure in your lineups. Both teams are fighting for playoff seeding and potential home field advantage, making this a potential game of the season on the fast turf of the Superdome, especially with both teams ranked top 10 in offensive plays per game.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $8,400
Coming off the second-lowest fantasy output of his career, I'm more than comfortable betting on a bounce-back for Drew Brees. In fact, given his recent performance and price, I'm willing to bet he goes underowned as well, given the circumstances of the game. While New Orleans' defense has improved a lot, it also hasn't faced a test as tough as Pittsburgh's offense -- at least since the Saints' defensive turnaround. Attached to easily the highest team total on the slate in a game with shootout potential, Brees is a great GPP option.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel Price: $8,000
Coming off a down performance of his own, JuJu Smith-Schuster makes for a nice pairing with whichever Saints stack you choose. JuJu averages just 1.43 fewer fantasy points per game than his teammate Antonio Brown ($8,700), yet he's priced a full tier lower. Interestingly, Smith-Schuster has notable positive road splits this season, per John Daigle of Rotoworld. Running almost two-thirds of his routes from the slot, he'll get the best matchup on the field against weekly burn victim P.J. Williams.
Others to Consider
It's rare that Alvin Kamara ($8,100) doesn't make an appearance in the featured section of this column. Still the RB5 on the season, Kamara feels slightly under-priced as the lead dog attached to the highest team total on the week. Kamara hasn't had a ceiling game since Week 10, but he's displayed a rock-solid floor, scoring at least 10 FanDuel points in every game but one this year. That makes him an underrated cash option and an always-strong tournament play.
Averaging exactly 14 touches per game, Mark Ingram ($6,600) deserves essentially the same write-up each week. He's a low-floor tournament option who's scoring outlook is elevated when the Saints are home favorites. His best contrarian tournament pairing is with the New Orleans D/ST ($3,500), the second-highest scoring fantasy defense since Week 10.
Michael Thomas ($8,300) should lock horns with Joe Haden, a matchup Thomas is more than capable than winning. More concerning than his matchup is target volume; Thomas is averaging just eight targets per game since the Saints defensive turnaround. That makes him strictly a GPP option at his price, albeit an exciting one. Thomas lost 3 catches and 45 yards to penalties last week.
In PPR scoring, Tre'Quan Smith averages 14.18 points per game at home this season. He averages just 2.62 points on the road. Smith remains the cheapest way to get a piece of all the action.
Similar to last week, it's tough to parse through the Pittsburgh backfield until we know about the status of James Conner ($8,300). New Orleans' run defense ranks sixth-best per numberFire's Net Expected Points model. That's less of a concern for whomever gets the start between Conner and Jaylen Samuels given their pass game usage though.
Conner seems legitimately questionable at this point, possibly a game-time decision. If Conner plays at anything less than 100%, he's likely a fade, while Samuels would become an intriguing contrarian tournament option. If Conner is out, fire up Samuels with confidence in all formats. Likely due to often playing with a lead, New Orleans has allowed the 11th-most running back receptions this year.
Big Ben Roethlisberger's ($8,700) home/road splits are less pronounced in 2018 than years past, but he's a tough sell as the most expensive quarterback on the slate. Roethlisberger is a more enticing play if Conner sits given likely elevated pass volume.
Vance McDonald ($5,500) is a low-floor dart throw with arguably the toughest matchup among Roethlisberger's pass catchers. That pretty much just leaves us with Antonio Brown ($8,700). Likely to receive shadow treatment from Marshon Lattimore, Brown's target share and red zone role are secure as ever. That said, this generation's Jerry Rice has been held to 70 yards or fewer in three of his last four games, and some signs point to the beginning of his decline. Brown can easily rip this one wide open and may well benefit playing indoors, but he isn't a comfortable cash option at his elite price.
