5 DraftKings Bargains for Week 16

Elijah McGuire, RB, New York Jets

DraftKings Price: $4,700

Projected Points: 13.27

Projected Value (points per $1,000): 2.82

With Isaiah Crowell placed on IR last week the New York Jets turned to their third-string running back Elijah McGuire. The second-year pro was on the shelf for the first half of the season but has developed as a secondary running back behind Crowell since Week 9.

Crowell left Week 14 after sustaining an in-game injury which ultimately ended his season. McGuire saw 17 attempts and 4 targets on 74% of the Jets’ snaps. Last week, he saw similar usage, with 18 attempts and 4 targets. From a workload perspective, McGuire will be the best volume per dollar running back on the Week 16 slate.

Trenton Cannon is a rookie undrafted free agent that's stepped into McGuire’s former role as backup but has minimal usage with Crowell out of the picture. He’s taken the remaining running back snaps and his max touch count topped at 10 last week. Cannon is unlikely to usurp McGuire in his role and is further evidence that the Jets are willing to ride with McGuire as their guy.

McGuire is also seeing the majority of the red zone work for the Jets over the last two weeks. His 10 carries is more than triple that of Cannon and even quarterback Sam Darnold, who has some running ability. The Jets have also skewed their red zone plays by being predominantly run heavy, with 62% of plays being called as runs over the last two weeks. Over the course of the season they are a near even split at 49.5%.

As a small home underdog, currently by three points on the FanDuel Sportsbook, the game script shouldn’t be out of hand but will definitely improve if opposing quarterback Aaron Rodgers sits. If the script is not as favorable as projected, McGuire can still catch passes as he was the receiving back when Crowell was still active and had four targets or more in four of six games.

McGuire is a top-three value for under $5,000 in numberFire's model this week.