5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17

Los Angeles Rams' Passing Offense

At some point, we're going to need to find some value for this slate. We'll get to another potential low-dollar option in the next section, but you can actually find some relief by targeting the Los Angeles Rams' offense against the San Francisco 49ers.

The big allure in the Rams lies in their passing game against the 49ers. San Francisco's banged up with corner Ahkello Witherspoon on injured reserve, and they were struggling even before that.

For the full season, the 49ers sit 27th against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. With just 2 interceptions compared to 31 passing touchdowns allowed for the season, you can start to see why.

These struggles have been even more pronounced when the team has hit the road. Although both of the team's picks have come outside of Santa Clara, they've still allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 0.26 Passing NEP per drop back compared to 0.11 at home. Those home-road splits mesh perfectly with the quarterback next up on the schedule.

As you noticed, Jared Goff was in a major funk coming out of the team's Week 11 bye. He had one touchdown to six picks in the first three post-bye games, and the eye test was even worse. Goff rebounded a bit last week.

Goff lost a fumble on the team's first drive of the game, a seemingly ominous sign for someone in need of a confidence boost. But even after deducting the expected points lost on that fumble, he finished with 0.25 Passing NEP per drop back, his best single-game outing since Week 10. His Success Rate was also 61.5% in that game, his second straight game topping 60% in that metric. All teams go through stretches of struggles, and it's possible we were just seeing Goff's turn on that carousel in Weeks 13 through 15.

Only one of Goff's three down games was at home, which may have played a role in his struggles. Here are Goff's splits for the season based on where the game has been played.

Based on those touchdown and interception numbers, it should not shock you to learn that this has led to huge splits for Goff in DFS, as well. For the season, he's averaging 25.50 FanDuel points per game at home and just 13.61 on the road. He's just a different guy in The Coliseum.

In case you're worried about the game script, Goff's superiority at home has popped up in lopsided victories, as well. The Rams have won two games at home by more than 10 points, and Goff had at least 32 attempts for 354 yards in both. When you weigh in that most of the other appealing quarterbacks on this slate have a similar concern, Goff starts to look even better.

Goff's salary is $7,800, meaning he's a healthy amount cheaper than both Mahomes and Roethlisberger. Considering that he has big similarities to those two -- efficient quarterback at home in a plus matchup -- it would seem wise to give Goff a look for the team's finale.

Goff doesn't count as a "value" option at his salary. But as mentioned, we can get some lower-cost options in this offense, including stacking partners with Goff.

Gurley missed practice again on Thursday, potentially lining C.J. Anderson up for another start. He may not be the most obvious stacking partner with Goff, but he does make sense.

Anderson checks in at $6,200 for Week 17 after getting 20 carries and 3 targets in his team debut. Anderson also played 75.0% of the team's snaps. Fellow back John Kelly did get 10 carries -- including one from the five-yard line -- but Anderson's clearly the lead dog in the backfield if Gurley's out. That means pairing him with Goff would potentially get you exposure to every touchdown the Rams score, an attractive proposition with a first-round bye on the line.

Outside of Anderson, we'll have to dig a bit to decide who is the best stacking partner with Goff. Defenses have clearly changed up the way they're attacking the Rams, and the Rams reacted by altering their offense in Week 16. More on that in a second, but first, here's how their targets have been divided since the bye.

This table could lead you to think Josh Reynolds is the other value option alluded to earlier. A deeper look at Week 16, though, shows why it's actually Gerald Everett.

For basically the entire season, the Rams have run three receivers and one tight end on the field for each play. That changed drastically in Week 16 as both Everett and Tyler Higbee played more than 70% of the snaps while Reynolds' snap rate fell to 51.5%. Reynolds finished the game with just two targets.

Everett, on the other hand, had 6 of 24 targets for the day, second on the team behind Robert Woods, and added a pair of rushing attempts. Everett has now played at least 44.7% of the snaps in three straight, getting at least six targets in each, equating to 17.4% of the team's total looks. That's pretty solid for a tight end, especially one that will cost you just $4,800.

Reynolds could still pop back up if the Rams decide to revert to their old ways. Because that's possible, Reynolds is in play for tournaments. But Everett seems to be the safer option, and he allows you to guard yourself from the volatility at the position by paying almost as little as possible. Even though Everett is yet to top 50 receiving yards in a game this year, he's very much a viable play for DFS in Week 17.

Among the higher-salaried options here, it's clear that Woods has seen fewer negative effects of the defensive changes than Brandin Cooks. Woods is a solid option at $7,600. But Cooks is a tougher dilemma.

In this four-game stretch, Cooks' max receiving-yardage output is just 62 yards. He had topped that mark in every game he had finished but one prior to the bye. This is enough to push him out of consideration for cash games.

For tournaments, though, there is at least some appeal. Cooks has still gotten six deep targets in these four games, and he's a threat to turn any deep target into a big play. Outside receivers Allen Robinson, Tim Patrick, and Mike Evans have all gotten at least 85 yards against the 49ers within the past five games. That type of game is still within Cooks' range of outcomes.

If you're playing in cash games or a smaller-field tournament, you'll want to find the salary to get up to Woods or just spend down on Anderson or Everett. But if you are playing in a large-field tournament and need a contrarian receiver with big upside, Cooks can be that guy. Decide what type of player you need based on the contest you're playing and go from there.