5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17

New York Jets' Rushing Offense

For most of our roster slots, we're going to want to focus on teams with something on the line for the reasons discussed in the open. It's just safer to target teams when we have a good idea of what they're going to do.

The New York Jets have been out of the playoff hunt for a while now. They could always change things up in Week 17, but we largely know what they're going to do in these scenarios. And that gameplan involves enough Elijah McGuire to put him on our radars here.

McGuire fails to fit the general mold of what we want at running back for a couple of reasons. The first is the lack of motivation. The second is that the Jets are 13.5-point underdogs, meaning it's unlikely they'll be able to run the football late in the game. That's not great for targeting a running back, no matter how low his salary may be. There are a couple of things, though, working in McGuire's favor.

One thing is the matchup with the New England Patriots. We've talked plenty about the issues with their pass rush, but their run defense has also been a bit of a bugaboo. They rank 22nd against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics.

That has allowed some backs to put up big numbers on the Patriots this year even without the benefit of heavy volume. Kerryon Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, and Frank Gore have all run for at least 75 yards on 16 or fewer carries. Just two weeks ago, Jaylen Samuels turned his 19 carries into 142 yards. As long as the game script allows the run game to be a factor, McGuire should be able to pound it efficiently.

It's also not a foregone conclusion that the Jets get whooped in this game with how they've been playing lately.

The Jets' record since Sam Darnold returned from his foot injury is just 1-2, and their one win was against the Buffalo Bills. That won't turn too many heads. But Darnold's play in those games should.

Here's a look at Darnold the past three weeks compared to what he did prior to prior to his injury.

Sure, it's just a three-game sample for Darnold. But the difference between this version of the rookie and what he was doing before he got hurt is substantial enough where we have to take notice.

The Patriots' pass defense tends to play well at home, meaning we shouldn't view Darnold as being in a favorable matchup. However, if Darnold continues to play well, that should allow them to keep the score closer and run the ball deeper into the game. That's where McGuire's DFS appeal comes into play.

In three games with Isaiah Crowell banged up or out, McGuire has averaged 16.3 carries and 4.3 targets per game. His 85.0% snap rate in Week 16 was easily his highest this year. Even with nothing on the line, the Jets are willing to ride McGuire and see what he has for 2019.

The Patriots need a win in this game. A win locks up a first-round bye and could net them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. A loss could push them as low as the number four seed in the AFC. You know they're going to bring their top game, which means McGuire's not a guy we should trust for cash games. But tournaments are a different story.

McGuire has a plus matchup, his quarterback is playing well, and he's getting work in the passing game to at least keep him on the field even if they fall behind. That's a lot of boxes to check for a running back with a salary of $6,300.

McGuire is one of several running backs who fits this mold for Week 17. Jeffrey Wilson Jr. and Royce Freeman are moving into bigger roles with backfield mates out, and Jamaal Williams has been a workhorse ever since Aaron Jones hit injured reserve. If you're looking for a non-playoff player to pop up and blow up the slate, these are some names to consider. McGuire deserves to be on that list as he wraps up his sophomore campaign.