2018 NFL Power Rankings: End-of-Season Edition
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Super Bowl Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 2.31 | 8-7-1 | 0.0% | 25 | 3 | -2 |
| 11 | Houston Texans | 3.37 | 11-5 | 2.7% | 11 | 10 | +1 |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 3.85 | 10-6 | 2.4% | 5 | 20 | +1 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 4.44 | 10-6 | 2.9% | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.01 | 9-6-2001 | 0.0% | 7 | 14 | -1 |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.81 | 12-4 | 18.8% | 1 | 28 | -1 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 7.07 | 10-6 | 5.0% | 17 | 2 | -2 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 7.25 | 11-5 | 17.6% | 4 | 11 | +3 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7.81 | 12-4 | 4.8% | 6 | 6 | +1 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | 8 | 13-3 | 17.1% | 3 | 16 | -2 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 8.44 | 12-4 | 7.6% | 14 | 1 | +1 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 8.9 | 13-3 | 17.3% | 2 | 12 | +1 |
Biggest surprise: Indianapolis Colts (32)
The Indianapolis Colts went from the bottom of our preseason ratings to the top 10 and a playoff berth.
The healthy return of Andrew Luck, who was seventh in the league in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP), certainly made a world of difference but was not the only factor. Luck also had the benefit of consistently strong pass protection for the first time in his career, and the beefed up Indianapolis line paved the way for an offense that was a healthy 13th in NEP per rush.
The Colts defense was also not the tire fire our models projected, as it finished 13th in yards allowed per play (5.5). The unit had a bend-but-don't break composition, and while it probably did a bit too much bending at times (it allowed a below-average 46.1% Success Rate against a less-than-stellar slate of opposing offenses), it excelled at clamping down on big plays.
Biggest disappointment: Minnesota Vikings (2)
Heading into the season, there was a lot to like about Minnesota. The Vikings were coming off a trip to the NFC Championship and had appeared to upgrade their quarterback situation.
In reality, the Kirk Cousins-led passing game lacked almost any degree of explosiveness, as he was second in the league in completion percentage (70.1%) but last in the league with 10.1 yards per completion. The combination of this and an inefficient running game put a ton of pressure on the Vikings defense
The unit was very strong but not enough to compensate for the offense -- in the modern NFL, it is generally better to rank highly on offense and poorly on defense than vice versa. They still had a fine year, as evidenced by their number 12 finish in the ranking, but they were a far-cry from the Super Bowl contending team we thought we would see.
