Evaluating 2018's NFL Rookie Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson
Sunday was not a pretty day for Jackson. There were fumbles and errant throws, and he needed a huge fourth quarter to make the final score look close.
That shouldn't overshadow what was a highly respectable debut season.
Among the rookie quarterbacks, Jackson finished second in Passing NEP per drop back. He was 32nd overall, but he was better than his peers, and this metric doesn't take into account his rushing abilities. It does factor in fumbles and sacks, though, and Jackson still graded out decently.
If we take the sacks out of the equation and look at Jackson just after the ball left his hand, things look even a bit better. There, he's 28th in Passing NEP per attempt, just five spots behind Mayfield and eight spots ahead of all other rookie passers. He was also a couple spots ahead of teammate Joe Flacco in this department. The defense has to respect Jackson's abilities as a rusher, which opens up lanes for him as a passer. As you can see in these numbers, there's good value in that.
Jackson compared to all quarterbacks was not a great passer this year. But when you compare him to other rookies, he winds up looking pretty good. Before you bash him for Sunday's performance, keep this context in mind.
If Jackson wants to take that next step as a passer, though, he will need to work on getting rid of the ball more quickly.
Normally, it's hard to separate a quarterback from his offensive line when looking at sack data. But for Jackson, we have a sample of another quarterback working behind the same five players up front. Flacco's sack numbers were not nearly as bad as Jackson's.
Here's a comparison of the two from this season. The "Sack NEP/P" column shows the number of expected points each player lost due to sacks on a per-drop back basis. The league average there is -0.12.
| Ravens QBs | Drop Backs | Sacks | Sack Rate | Sack NEP/P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 395 | 16 | 4.05% | -0.06 |
| Lamar Jackson | 186 | 16 | 8.60% | -0.18 |
Jackson's style of play is going to be more conducive to sacks than Flacco's, and his extending plays is a valuable part of the offense. He just can't afford to give up drive-killing plays this often.
The positive for Jackson is that this is something that could come with extra time in the offense and with a full offseason to build the gameplan around him. Once he's more comfortable with the scheme and the speed of the NFL, he may be better able to assess when it's time to just get rid of the football. But this is a necessary step before Jackson can reach his full potential.
Looking at Jackson as a rusher, even though the defense knew it was coming, they still couldn't do much to stop it.
On his 133 regular-season attempts, Jackson averaged 0.18 Rushing NEP per carry with a 52.6% Success Rate. Those are below-average marks for a quarterback (more on that in the section on Allen), but given how many of those were designed runs, you expect his per-carry numbers to be closer to those of a running back than a quarterback. This is still a weapon the Ravens should continue to allow him to use.
Jackson proved this year that he can be successful as a passer and a rusher. That's the first big hurdle for him. Now, he has to make refinements to those passing abilities while striving to give up fewer sacks. If people sleep on the Ravens' offense from a fantasy and a betting perspective due to the perception around Jackson, it may present a fruitful buying window heading into 2019.
