Evaluating 2018's NFL Rookie Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold
Darnold's overall numbers for 2018 are disappointing. He was just 33rd in Passing NEP per drop back, nestled between Jeff Driskel and Blaine Gabbert. But things went much better after he returned from his foot injury.
For Darnold, the sample was nine games before his injury and four games after returning. Here are his splits in those two stretches.
| Darnold in 2018 | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 9 Games | 11 | 14 | -0.09 | 40.0% |
| Final 4 Games | 6 | 1 | 0.17 | 50.0% |
The sample was smaller for Darnold, but he played well the final quarter of the season. That run started with a win against the Buffalo Bills, numberFire's fourth-ranked pass defense. It's very much a noteworthy output by Darnold.
On the other hand, this stretch also amplified one frustrating element of Darnold's rookie season: wild volatility. He was great in some games and looked completely lost in others.
This table shows Darnold's Passing NEP for each game that he started this season. He also had good games before his injury, but overall, there were lots of ups and downs.
Darnold's worst game came against a stout Minnesota Vikings defense, and his second worst was when his center, Spencer Long, was having major issues snapping the ball. There are explanations for the struggles, but seeing the bad be that bad is a bit unnerving.
Let's circle back to those snapping issues for a second. That's something that's partly out of Darnold's control, and surrounding talent certainly matters for a quarterback. Thankfully for him, we got a glimpse at an alternative option in the New York Jets' offense, and it was far from pretty.
| Jets' QBs in 2018 | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17 | 15 | -0.01 | 43.0% |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 4 | -0.22 | 37.6% |
When playing behind the same offensive line and with the same group of pass-catchers, Josh McCown was gasping for air. Clearly, the surrounding situation was not one conducive to success by quarterbacks this year.
Just like the Browns, though, the Jets have gobs of cap space this year (projected at the second most, trailing only the Indianapolis Colts). They've also got the third overall pick. They're going to be able to add talent around Darnold if they want.
Based on the numbers that Robby Anderson put up down the stretch, we know that Darnold can support a fantasy-relevant receiver. The same was true with Elijah McGuire at running back. This is while playing behind a lackluster offensive line, and we should expect the team to make gains there over the offseason. Whichever pieces they add at the skill positions should come with reasons for optimism.
Additionally, Darnold showed that he can support a passable offense even with a poor supporting cast. The Jets' defense already has a decent amount of talent, as well. This is advantageous from a betting perspective as the Jets have some of the pieces necessary for a surprise season. Overall, Darnold's first season was encouraging, and we should be cautiously willing to feel good about it as long as the requisite offseason upgrades do, indeed, come.
