Blind Résumés: Using Math to Compare Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Half Season Elite Quarterbacks
| Player | Drop Backs | Pass NEP | NEP/ Drop Back | Success Rate | Rush NEP | Total NEP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB A | 311 | 98.12 | 0.32 | 53.05% | 12.37 | 110.50 |
| QB B | 346 | 108.68 | 0.31 | 48.55% | 9.16 | 117.84 |
Quarterback A is being drafted four rounds ahead of quarterback B in this example (according to Fantasy Football Calculator average draft position data), despite the latter posting very similar production as a thrower and a runner. As you can tell by the drop backs column, neither played a full season under center, and in both cases it was an injury which prompted a shorter season.
But for Quarterback A, Aaron Rodgers, that injury was his own, yet for Quarterback B, Nick Foles, the injury was to the starter ahead of him. Yes, the Eagles' quarterback posted nearly an identical Net Expected Points per opportunity in the passing game as his elite rival in Green Bay, and even managed to cobble together rushing numbers that resemble those of the athletic Cal product known for his title belt touchdown celebration.
The four-round difference between the two signal-callers is obvious, despite seemingly close statistics. Rodgers' owns three of the 20 best quarterback seasons since 2010, while Foles burst onto the scene as a relative unknown in 2013. And before you take the rushing similarities out of context, allow me to add that Foles' production was earned on twice as many carries, leading to a strong advantage for Rodgers in per rush NEP.
Foles has the upside to produce like an elite NFL quarterback thanks to his fantasy-friendly offense under Chip Kelly. The uncertainty about where his ceiling truly is may be the only thing keeping his average draft position below that of Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady in many formats. But if you're going to take a quarterback in the first two rounds of your draft, you may want Rodgers, because his production is proven over multiple full seasons, and therefore is more likely to be sustained in 2014.
