Blind Résumés: Using Math to Compare Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Late-Round Quarterback Targets

According to the same Fantasy Football Calculator ADP data referenced before, Quarterback A in this example is being drafted in the 11th round, while Quarterback B is going undrafted. The disparity in drop backs may be a red flag for some, as it is a potential signal of opportunity being in the favor of Quarterback A.

But both players enter the 2014 season as unquestioned starters for their respective teams. Quarterback A, Andy Dalton, finished ridiculously high in most fantasy leagues last year thanks to plenty of huge weeks with tons of volume and production. Quarterback B, Ryan Fitzpatrick, took over for an injured Jake Locker, and had the best season of his career (according to our metrics), only to sign a bargain deal with the Texans rather than stick around in Tennessee.

In this case, the disparity in ADP might not be justified at all. In his three seasons as a regular starter in the NFL, Andy Dalton has posted per drop back NEP averages of .02, .02, and .09. In his three seasons as a regular contributor since 2010, Fitzpatrick has posted seasons of .02, .03, and .09 Passing NEP per drop back. The two have similar profiles as runners, as well, further adding to the similarity.

Dalton and Fitzpatrick have a similar set of weapons at their disposal, and while there have been changes on both coaching staffs this summer, the Houston quarterback steps into an offense that threw the ball more often than the Cincinnati offense did a year ago.

This data shouldn't be used to bash Dalton, as he's a fine option as a mid-tier QB2 or a late-round option for those waiting on quarterback in deeper leagues or looking to stream at the position this season. Instead, it should be another wake up call to those who doubt the magic of Ryan Fitzpatrick.