Don't Draft These 10 Guys

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Through the first seven weeks of 2013, T.Y. Hilton was averaging 3.8 receptions, a little over 58 yards and 0.29 touchdowns per game. He was the 24th-most targeted receiver in football (55), and ranked 34th among all wideouts in Reception Net Expected Points (NEP). Not bad for a sophomore pass-catcher, but after a rookie campaign that saw five touchdowns over his final seven games, Hilton's 2013 start was rather uninspiring.

An unfortunate season-ending injury to Reggie Wayne changed that, as Hilton became the focal point in the Colts offense. Over the next two games following Wayne's injury, Hilton would total 14 grabs for 251 yards and three scores.

Over the nine games without Reggie Wayne in the lineup, T.Y. Hilton caught fewer than five passes once. His average receptions per game catapulted to 6.1, while his yards per game average grew to about 75 yards. But most importantly and disregarded by fantasy owners in 2014, Hilton's final nine games saw 84 targets. After ranking 24th in targets with Wayne, Hilton ranked 12th in the league without him. This, my friends, is why T.Y. Hilton succeeded in fantasy football last year.

Entering 2014, Reggie Wayne is not only healthy, but so is tight end Dwayne Allen, who was targeted 66 times during his rookie campaign. And let's not forget the free agent signing of Hakeem Nicks, who will surely have a role in the offense if healthy.

In essence, T.Y. Hilton's 139-target season isn't happening in 2014. And even if it did, let's not overstate what the Colts' wideout accomplished as the only legitimate option in that offense last year. He still finished as just the 17th-best wideout in PPR formats over the league's final nine weeks, and despite catching so many passes, Hilton had just two weeks over this stretch where he finished as a top-24 wide receiver. Throughout the entire season, Hilton had as many top-24 weeks as Eddie Royal and Nate Washington.

And now folks are drafting him in Round 5? No thanks. I'll leave the weekly up-and-down, roller coaster wide receiving headache for another team in my league.