7 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
By JJ Zachariason
Since Russell Wilson took over the Seahawks' offense in 2012, no pass-catcher has received 100 targets. Not one.
This is partially because, well, Seahawks' receivers have been awful over this time, but also due to the fact that the team relentlessly runs the football, more than any other squad in the NFL, in fact.
Enter Jimmy Graham from New Orleans, who's had the pleasure of playing in an offense that's had a pass-to-run ratio of 1.78 over the last three years.
Seattle's pass-to-run ratio over this time? 0.89.
If Graham were to see 19 percent of Wilson's targets this year -- the same rate he saw in New Orleans over the last three years -- we're looking at 87 fewer PPR fantasy points for the tight end per season.
Even if we assume a 25 percent target share -- which would be a five-year high at the position across the league -- while imagining a Seahawks' team that drops back to pass 550 times, Graham's PPR output would only be 35 points higher than what he saw in New Orleans last year.
That's roughly what you'd want out of a third-round tight end, but that's also assuming he's somewhat of an outlier in terms of targets, and the Seahawks are throwing the ball more than they have since Russell Wilson took over under center.
We've got more problems here though as well. Drew Brees is better than Russell Wilson at throwing the football, outpacing him within our efficiency metrics over the last three seasons. And the Seahawks have this guy Marshawn Lynch who can score touchdowns in the red zone, something that's generally been absent from the Saints offense during Graham's time there.
So what does it all mean? In order for Graham to really live up to his ADP, the Seahawks need to pass more, Graham has to see a crazy percentage of team targets, Russell Wilson has to be more efficient throwing the ball (especially compared to last year), and the team needs to be more pass-friendly close to the end zone.
At a position that's generally replaceable throughout fantasy football? No thanks.
