7 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts

Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

By Ryan Ward

Many fantasy drafters are expecting huge things out of Martavis Bryant in 2015. Playing in only 10 games last season, Bryant managed to secure eight touchdown passes, two of which exceeded 80 yards. This deep ball prowess enabled Bryant to emerge as the second most efficient wideout receiving over 40 targets in 2014 (0.95 Reception NEP per target).

But are fantasy owners being realistic to expect this level of production extrapolated to a full 16-game season in 2015? In redraft leagues, I’m betting against Bryant.

The first reason for my Bryant skepticism is predictability. His week-to-week performances were so up and down that his respectable 13.6 fantasy points per game average in PPR leagues came with a standard deviation of 9.52 points. In other words, 68% of Bryant’s performances fell between 4.08 points and 23.14 points.

That’s frightening if you’re looking for steady hands at the receiver position so you can load up on stud running backs early.

The second reason is opportunity. Look, don’t kid yourself -- Antonio Brown got fed 181 targets last season because he’s that good, finishing with a league-leading 151.91 Reception NEP. Those target numbers are a virtual lock for Brown headed into 2014. As are 6.5 targets per game that were directed at Le’Veon Bell, who put together the fourth best receiving season from a running back since 2014 with a 64.26 Reception NEP.

Bryant’s primary competition for snaps will come from Markus Wheaton, who is currently penciled in as the number-two wide receiver on the depth chart. Ben Roethlisberger has been effusive in his praise of Wheaton over the offseason, and the Steelers seem committed to providing Wheaton with opportunities to flourish.

With so many targets already spoken for in a system that has no incentive to dramatically change to incorporate Bryant’s skill set, it wouldn’t shock me if Bryant’s role was similar or only slightly increased from his 4.8 targets per game average he received in 2010. Couple that with the inevitable boom-or-bust nature of his game, and I’m passing on Bryant at his early sixth-round ADP.