5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10
Green Bay Packers Rushing Offense
I didn't include the Green Bay Packers' passing offense in the chalk disclaimer, though they certainly fit that mold. I wanted more room to expand upon them here as I believe Aaron Rodgers' efficiency makes James Starks a perfect tournament play this weekend.
The Packers rank fourth in Adjusted Passing NEP per play, while the Detroit Lions are 31st against the pass. This is as blatant of a mismatch as you could possibly have. As a result, the Packers are 13-point favorites at home. That's gold for a fantasy running back.
With Starks now being the team's No. 1 back, he's in a great position to capitalize on that situation. If the Packers turn to the run, they'll be facing a Lions rush defense that is 24th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. This should provide Starks with opportunity to impress in his new role.
The remaining issue with Starks now that Eddie Lacy is less of a concern is that Starks isn't overly efficient. He is 20th in Rushing NEP per play of the 37 running backs with at least 70 carries, and he's only 36th in Rushing Success Rate. That's a cause for concern.
Part of that could be a result of the teams against which Starks has seen the heaviest volume. He has seen at least 10 carries in four separate games this year. Two were against the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs, who rank fourth and sixth respectively in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. His next matchup came against a San Diego Chargers team that he gashed for 112 yards on 10 carries. Finally, he went for 39 yards on 10 carries against the Carolina Panthers. They are 15th against the rush, though this number has been improving steadily since the return of Luke Kuechly. Starks hasn't had it easy.
Because the Packers' passing offense is such an obvious play, it may prevent people from gravitating towards Starks. I do think it's smart to invest in Rodgers and the receivers. But when the opponent has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in eight games, I have no problem with taking a peek at the ground game, as well.
