5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10
Baltimore Ravens Passing Offense
I get a little twang in my stomach whenever I think about how great this matchup would be if Steve Smith were healthy. Ice up quickly, son, and please come back next year.
Even without their fearless and endlessly entertaining leader, I'm big into the Baltimore Ravens' passing game. The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 30th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. They are almost matchup-proof in their devotion to suckitude.
On the year, the Jaguars have faced their share of quarterbacks who are having difficult seasons. But plenty of them have had fantasy success against them. Brian Hoyer picked up 24.2 FanDuel points. Ryan Tannehill had 24.1. Ryan Fitzpatrick had 18.9. Oh, E.J. Manuel, starting in place of an injured Tyrod Taylor? He had 19.7 points. I think Joe Flacco should be all right.
Flacco hasn't been an overly efficient quarterback this year, but the Ravens haven't had the easiest of schedules, either. They have faced a team in the top 10 in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play three times. In those games, Flacco has averaged 8.8 FanDuel points per game. In the other five games, he has averaged 22.3 points per game. This will be the worst pass defense he has faced this year, so I'm buying Flacco.
The issue here comes with selecting with whom to pair Flacco in a tournament. With Smith out, that becomes a much more difficult question. To me, this seems to go right back to Kamar Aiken.
In Week 8, Aiken led the team's wide receivers in snaps -- by far -- at 69.0 percent. Chris Givens was next up among the healthy wideouts at 49.0 percent with Marlon Brown at 44.0 percent. Aiken is easily the safest choice.
Aiken hasn't been great this year, but he also hasn't been bad. He has 0.72 Reception NEP per target, a mark just slightly below Smith's 0.78. He's certainly not equal to Smith, but at his price and potential target share, he doesn't have to be. You can stack him with Flacco or use him on him own, but having exposure to Aiken seems to be a good idea.
I also think this adds up well for Justin Forsett. Forsett is an involved member of the passing game, sitting third on the team in targets with 37 and seeing 6 or more targets in five games this year. When you add in the potential for some garbage-time rushing yardage with the Ravens favored by 5.5 points, Forsett becomes an attractive option.