5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15
Arizona Cardinals Rushing Offense
As mentioned in the section on Peterson, I get a bit skittish about using running backs who are on the road. When that running back has as much upside and is as cheap as David Johnson, though, I suppose I can make an exception.
Johnson's first 76 carries in the NFL have resulted in 3.80 Rushing NEP or 0.05 Rushing NEP per carry. If he qualified alongside the league's other high-volume backs, he'd rank seventh in both Rushing NEP per carry and Rushing Success Rate. Part of this is being on an offense that has been effective running the ball the entire year, but he also appears just to be a talented individual.
Johnson will put that efficiency up against the Philadelphia Eagles -- who rank 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play -- this week. Over their past five games, the Eagles have allowed seven (yes, seven) opposing running backs to record at least 12.9 half-PPR points. That would almost be enough for Johnson to hit value in cash games. Being favored in a game with an over/under of 50.5 also means he brings upside at a price of $6,500 on FanDuel and $5,700 on DraftKings. Yes, please.
The concern here would be whether Johnson would be impacted by the return of Andre Ellington. There had been speculation last week that Ellington would be back for this week, but now Ellington doesn't "seem optimistic" that he'll be able to play Sunday, according to Josh Weinfuss of ESPN. In the two games Ellington has missed, Johnson has seen 70.2 percent and 80.6 percent of the offense's snaps. He could see a similar number this week.
Johnson's in a similar spot to Peterson, with the downside that his game logs are glorious. That's probably going to lead to some decent investment by others, so his ownership may be a bit steep. He has a combination of floor, ceiling, and price that makes me set the bar around 25 percent. If he exceeds that, then I'd rather invest in the also high-upside Cardinals' passing game (specifically Michael Floyd or John Brown. However, if you can somehow get Johnson for a lower mark than that, then I'd say go all in and let this puppy run.
