6 Undervalued Fantasy Football Assets Based on Vegas Win Totals
Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Team Win Total: 9.5 | ADP: 32nd-ranked Running Back
It's pretty rare that you see the top running back on a team projected to win 9.5 games going in the sixth or seventh round, yet that's where Frank Gore currently sits. Unless something drastic happens to the Indianapolis Colts' backfield before opening kickoff, that's criminally low for the old timer.
We can all agree that Gore was certifiably awful last year, right? You won't find any disagreement here as Gore ranked 40th in Rushing NEP per carry of the 44 running backs who had at least 100 carries. He was also 41st in success rate, which tracks the percentage of plays on which a player increases the team's NEP. He was all around not great, Bob, and your fantasy teams likely took notice if he was on your roster.
Why, then, would we want to take a risk on Gore, who turned 33 years old in May? Outside of the team's supposed up-tick this year with the return of Andrew Luck and the lack of competition for carries, last year's struggles also may not have been his fault.
The Colts got absolutely throttled with offensive line issues last year, using four different starters at right guard and three each at left tackle, left guard, and right tackle. You won't find many efficient rushers in situations like that, especially when the team's quarterback is also down due to injury.
Additionally, even though he was putrid, Gore was still better than his teammates. The table below compares Gore to the other backs the Colts used throughout the season, with Rushing NEP per carry being shortened to "Rush NEP/P." Shield your eyes if you are squeamish.
| Running Back | Rushes | Rush NEP | Rush NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 260 | -28.68 | -0.11 | 34.6% |
| Rest of Team | 81 | -21.88 | -0.27 | 30.9% |
There was Gore, and there was blood. The Colts' backfield was officially a horror movie last year.
All of this is to say that Gore may still be an effective rusher if he's given a viable situation. The risk associated with a 33-year-old running back is already baked into his ADP, but the upside of a top running back on a 9.5-win team is not. He's a bargain at his current draft slot.
