NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 9

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 9

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Closing It Out

Week 9 was a good week for our favorites; each of the top six teams came out on top. This will be the last week for our survivor advice but if you are still alive in your pool or if you’re in a pool with multiple strikes, keep on reading. At this point, most of the pool should be eliminated so you cannot guarantee the small sample size will coincide with public picks. What that means is the equity-maximizing aspect is not as important – since it is more difficult to predict opponent tendencies – and picking those teams most likely to win is essential. If you’re like most of America and have been eliminated already, feel free to buy another round on your winnings from numberFire’s premium product.

Week 9's Top Picks

Green Bay over Arizona (83.5% Win Probability)

Arizona has shown their true colors yet again, going 0-4 after a 4-0 start. Most recently, they were dominated by San Francisco on Monday Night. The Packers own the best offense in the NFC, having added 95 points above expectation; the Cardinals, on the other hand, own the worst offense in the NFC, having scored almost 60 points less than a league-average offense would have if put in similar situations.

Houston over Buffalo (72.7 % Win Probability)

Houston has been downright dominant on defense so far this year, and they own the NFL’s best defense, having prevented over 60 points from being scored. The Bills are the anti-Texans and have allowed close to a hundred points scored above expectation. Houston should dominate on both sides of the ball.

Denver over Cincinnati (66.9% Win Probability)

The Broncos dominated the Saints on both sides of the ball Sunday Night, especially on defense. Stopping Drew Brees is a difficult task and Denver is the most balanced team in the NFL. They rank No. 3 offensively and No. 4 defensively. Peyton Manning should give the Bengals secondary fits all day.

Our Recommendations

This week’s most picked teams:

1. Detroit Lions over Jacksonville Jaguars (19.2%)
2. Houston Texans over Buffalo Bills (18.0%)
3. San Diego Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs (13.4%)

Who to pick:

Green Bay Packers (81.82% adjusted win odds)
Most of the top teams have likely already been used; if you are out of options then the Redskins over the Panthers is a solid choice.

Full Adjusted Win Odds