NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 1/10/23
Well, with just one pick on yesterday's games, I didn't expect to still be wrong -- even cashing.
The Flyers, who we took on the puckline as an underdog, won 4-0 outright in Buffalo. Ironically enough, today's marquee bet is in the same spot.
Where should we bet Tuesday's 10-game slate?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres
Sabres ML (-113) - 3 Stars
Over 6.5 (-124) - 2 Stars
It's great news when your betting model recommends fading a squad, it works, and then it turns around and supports them one day later. You can lose a lot of coins quickly if it's overvaluing or undervaluing certain teams unjustly.
The Sabres are getting love from the model tonight. They are unrested but had no travel with a second straight at KeyBank Center. In fact, it's Seattle that's on the fifth leg of its road trip.
These two teams are pretty close. The Kraken's 50.3% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) slightly edges out Buffalo's (49.3%), but the difference is in goal. Eric Comrie has missed the bulk of the year due to injury, but returning in this spot, he was solid last season, posting the 14th-best goals saved above expectation (9.89 GSAx).
Philipp Grubauer isn't solid. He posted -31.53 GSAx in a full role last year (worst in the NHL), and while his peripheral GSAx is oddly better this year during intentionally limited action (1.29 GSAx), the results have been even worse (3.56 GAA).
With two backup netminders, our model is taking a rare swipe at the over here. It expects at least seven goals 62.0% of the time against these 55.4% implied odds. It also likes Buffalo to win the game 66.9% of the time against their 53.3% implied odds.
Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues
Blues ML (+146) - 2 Stars
This is really where I start to lose folks.
The majority of the time, our model believes Calgary wins this game. Their win odds are 50.2%, per the model. However, that actually makes St. Louis the bet with value. They're 49.8% likely to win against their 40.7% implied odds.
Rested and at home, the Blues aren't a bad squad. Our nERD rankings have them 16th in the NHL overall, but it's not psychotic. The Flames are sixth and are the better team.
Why should we back St. Louis? Well, they've been a tad unlucky defensively. They've allowed 3.54 goals per 60 minutes, but their xGA per 60 minutes is just 3.32. More shots hitting posts and crossbars could be in their future.
Neither Jacob Markstrom (0.74 GSAx) nor Jordan Binnington (-3.39 GSAx) has had a standout season, either. This is just a middle-of-the-road, close contest that the model sees as close to a pick 'em, and we'll side with the sharps. Despite getting just 41% of bets in this spot, the Blues are getting 55% of the handle.
San Jose Sharks at Arizona Coyotes
Coyotes ML (+114) - 2 Stars
Arizona is pretty comfortably the worst team in the NHL, but this is the spot to take them. Though not taking a puckline here, they're actually 20-19 against the spread (ATS), so this is a competitive bottom feeder.
The Sharks (45.3% GF) are in the bottom five of the league in GF% with the Yotes (42.8%), so it's easier to hold your nose with Arizona's unsightly peripherals. The Coyotes -- beyond their odd home atmosphere -- have a key advantage in this one, and it's in the crease.
Karel Vejmelka has been outstanding in goal. He's 12th in the NHL in GSAx (7.50), and I'd be fine saying he's the sole reason Arizona is remotely competitive. On the other side, San Jose's goaltending carousel has stopped on James Reimer for the moment, and Reimer (-4.90 GSAx) is clawing through another unsuccessful season.
Our model favors the Coyotes here, expecting them to win 53.1% of the time against these 46.7% implied odds. With cash flowing in against the Yotes (per usual), this is a line that could improve throughout the afternoon if you'd like to wait.
