The 9 Most Overvalued Players in Fantasy Football
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
I don't get it, guys. I don't understand the love for DeAndre Hopkins in fantasy football.
Let's just be real here: Hopkins' ADP is really the result of a crazy 10-week stretch in 2015 where he was pacing to become the highest-targeted receiver in NFL history. No, seriously -- after Week 11 in 2015, Hopkins had 135 targets, averaging 13.5 targets per game. That pace across 16 contests would've yielded 216 targets, breaking the single-season record.
What changed? Halfway through the season, the Texans started winning. And winning games means positive game scripts, which leads to fewer pass attempts.
| Timeframe | Drop Backs | Rushes | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-7 | 341 | 191 | 1.79 |
| Weeks 8-16 | 271 | 250 | 1.08 |
After Week 7 that year -- they were 2-5 at the time -- Houston had the fifth-highest drop back-to-run ratio in the NFL. They finished 9-7 and, over the second half of the year, they became one of the most run-heavy teams in football.
Hopkins, as a result, averaged fewer than 10 targets per contest after averaging 14.43 during the first half of the season.
And given his performance last year, he's now had just two top-12, WR1 performances since Week 11 of 2015 in PPR formats (excludes Week 17). Freaking Brandon LaFell had three last year alone.
Hopkins did see his market share drop from 31.02% in 2015 to 25.90% in 2016, but Houston also threw 36 fewer passes while running 56 fewer plays last year. And a big reason for that dip in share is because they had more overall weapons, which is something that wasn't there during Hopkins' 2015 surge.
Basically, the only thing going for Hopkins right now -- obviously, aside from the fact that he's a monster of a wide receiver -- is the fact that he may get better quarterback play from either Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson this season. He should get better quarterback play. Even that, though, may not be much of an upgrade. And that's a big deal if you're planning on spending a second- or third-round pick on Hopkins.
Post-Writing Note: Hopkins is still overvalued, but recent news on Will Fuller helps his cause.
