The 9 Most Overvalued Players in Fantasy Football
Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers
So, two things before you read on about why Keenan Allen is overrated in fantasy football this year. First, his average draft position can fluctuate quite a bit depending on the draft. And second, wide receivers seem very fairly priced this season -- my feelings towards Allen aren't nearly as strong as my feelings towards the aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about the sorta kinda overvalued Keenan Allen.
Allen's career has gone a little something like this: he had a fantastic rookie season, his production and efficiency dropped during his sophomore year, he started his third season off hot before getting hurt halfway through, and he was out for almost all of last season.
Really, you could make the argument that Keenan Allen's best season in the NFL came in 2013 when he was a rookie.
| Year | Gms | Targets | Targets Per Game | Air Yds Per Catch | YAC Per Catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 16 | 104 | 6.50 | 8.56 | 6.17 |
| 2014 | 14 | 121 | 8.64 | 5.92 | 4.25 |
| 2015 | 8 | 89 | 11.13 | 7.01 | 3.81 |
| 2016 | 1 | 7 | 7.00 | 6.67 | 3.83 |
That season, Allen not only saw his highest air yards per catch rate, but he also had his highest yards after the catch per reception average. Usually, when one of those statistics goes down, you'd expect the other to go up. That hasn't exactly been the case for Allen since his rookie season.
Most pinpoint Allen's 2015 season for encouragement, but an important thing to note is that, through the eight games Allen played, quarterback Philip Rivers was pacing to a near-700 pass attempt (348 during the eight games) season. Allen had a nice market share (around 25.5%) at that time, but the Chargers have thrown the ball 544, 574, and 580 times during the other three years Allen's been in the league. At a 26% market share, that'd still be a top-notch 147 or so targets, but it's certainly not the near 180 Allen was marching towards.
And you could strongly argue that the Chargers aren't going to need Allen to see that hefty of a market share this year, too. Mike Williams being sidelined helps his case, but Tyrell Williams was a freak last year, Hunter Henry will demand a higher market share as a second-year tight end, and the team has a running back they're committed to in Melvin Gordon.
In 2015 -- when Allen saw all the volume he did in such a pass-first offense -- Gordon was a rookie. There really was no up-and-comer in Williams. And Antonio Gates was plodding around at the tight end position.
Like I said at the top, I can understand Allen's average draft position to a degree. But treat this as a fair warning: if he's used as he was in 2014 and 2015, he's going to need pretty significant volume to live up to his draft cost.
