The 9 Most Overvalued Players in Fantasy Football
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Without Jeremy Maclin in the mix, the Chiefs have a lot of targets up for grabs. From that standpoint, Travis Kelce stands to benefit.
| Targets | Targets Per Game | Team Attempts | Market Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Maclin | 79 | 6.58 | 408 | 19.36% |
| Without Maclin | 38 | 9.50 | 138 | 27.54% |
Maclin missed four games last year, and in those four games, Kelce saw a significant market share. This, we can safely assume, is why folks are drafting Kelce -- a tight end, which inherently has less value in fantasy football due to the supply and demand of the position -- in the third round of fantasy drafts.
Focusing your attention on those four games can get you into a lot of trouble, though. Kelce did finish as last year's top tight end in fantasy football, but the tight end position in fantasy football last year was also, well, trash. Kelce ended up with 138 standard fantasy points, which would've ranked seventh in 2015, fourth in 2014, and fourth in 2013. It was by no means a high ceiling season.
And Kelce may not be capable of a ton of upside given the offense he's playing in. Not only has Kansas City ranked 24th, 26th, and 28th in touchdown passes over the last three years, but Kelce's also seen no more than 18 red zone targets in a single season (that happened last year), 7 from within his opponent's 10-yard line (ditto), and 3 from within his opponent's 5 (2016 once again).
To give you some perspective, over the last five years, we've seen 22 tight end instances with 19 or more red zone targets, good for 4.4 instances per season. There've been 43 tight end seasons with more than 7 (Kelce's career high) targets from within their opponent's 10-yard line (8.6 per season), and 68 with more than the 3 targets Kelce saw last year inside his opponent's 5-yard line (13.6).
This is why Kelce's struggled scoring touchdowns. It's not that he's incapable or a bad tight end -- that couldn't be further from the truth -- it's that the Chiefs aren't scoring a lot of touchdowns through the air, and their lack of Kelce use close to the end zone just piles on the meh-ness.
Sure, he'll probably give you a decent-enough floor each week at an inherently volatile slot in your lineup. Don't ignore the touchdown upside -- or lack thereof -- though. Because you can realistically find tight ends (again, due to the supply and demand of the position) with better touchdown upside for a fraction of the price later on in drafts.
