NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 1/10/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,900): The Winnipeg Jets are -134 road favorites against the Detroit Red Wings and have a very winnable matchup in front of them. This is about as straightforward of a matchup as you can find on tonight's slate -- the Jets are good, and the Red Wings are bad.
This season, the Jets are allowing just 2.08 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-best in the league. Hellebuyck has anchored them all season with a .928 save percentage and 2.22 goals per game allowed. When it comes to the Red Wings' offense, there isn't much of it. They are scoring 2.33 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. This should put Hellebuyck in a spot for the win tonight.
High-Salaried Skaters
Steven Stamkos ($8,800): Stamkos and the Tampa Bay Lightning have a slate-high 4.21 implied goal total at home taking on the Columbus Blue Jackets. If any NHL player is "due" for a goal, it's Stamkos, who comes in with 29 shots on goal over his last 10 games but just a single goal. He does have eight assists over this time, so the fantasy production is still there on a nightly basis, but we haven't seen a ton of upside lately.
That could all be changing tonight since the Blue Jackets are allowing 3.30 goals and a 64.14 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations -- both second-worst in the NHL. With a role on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, Stammer will have a chance to break his goal drought.
Timo Meier ($9,300): The San Jose Sharks have a 3.42 implied goal total tonight against the Arizona Coyotes, and we want to consider Meier as a top option tonight. Meier is the primary offensive option for the Sharks and comes in with 13 NHL points and a staggering 50 shots on goal over his last 10 games. All he does is shoot the puck on net, providing a safe floor of points every night.
While the Sharks have a bad record overall, they have quietly snuck into the top 10 of the league for the most goals scored (2.72) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They allow the third-most goals (3.20) in the same situations, which puts them in high-scoring, back-and-forth games. That is fantastic for fantasy production, and it puts Meier in a spot for multiple points tonight.
Value Skaters
Jeff Carter ($4,700): Carter has offered solid point-per-dollar value lately, and that should continue tonight versus the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks are in the bottom 11 of the league for the most goals allowed (2.74) and Corsi Against (58.19), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations. They are bad on defense, and that has led the over to hit in 22 of their 36 games this season.
Carter comes in with 5 NHL points, 15 shots on goal, and 10 blocked shots over his last 10 games. Grabbing production in multiple categories is great to see, and with time on the second power-play unit, there is some offensive upside for him tonight, too.
Andrew Mangiapane ($4,800): With a 3.34 implied goal total, the Calgary Flames have a favorable matchup against the St. Louis Blues, who are struggling on defense this season. The Blues sit in the bottom eight of the league in goals allowed (2.81) and Corsi Against (58.90), both per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations.
They're another bad defensive team that will put the opposing offense in a favorable spot, and while there are great expensive options, there is value in Mangiapane. Admittedly, the offense is lacking from Mangiapane, but the underlying metrics are there for him. He has the largest differential in goals scored (7) versus expected goals (11.1) on the Flames, per MoneyPuck. He's due to get the offense going soon, and this is a great matchup to help that.
